Brazil will surpass the US in soy production by 2026

Brazil will surpass the United States to become the world's largest soy producer in ten years. The forecast is in the Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 report, released last week by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

According to the report, soybean production in Brazil is expected to grow at 2.6% per year, the highest rate among large global producers, driven mainly by higher availability of acreage for planting that Argentina (projected growth of 2.1% per year) and the United States (1% per year).

As a result, exports of the product in 2026 will likely be dominated by Brazil and the United States, which together account for almost 80% of global exports.

Global soybean output is expected to grow at a slower pace in the studies period: predictions point that it will continue to grow, but a rate of 1.9% p.a., below the 4.9% reached in the last decade.

The report states that Brazil and Argentina have experienced the greatest expansion in acreage over the last ten years, adding 10 and 8 million hectares to global acreage, respectively, and that the two are expected to have similar trends of expansion in the next ten years.

"Superharvest"

Estimates in the latest survey of the 2016/2017 harvest released by the National Supply Company (Conab) confirm expectations by FAO and OECD. The institute projects the harvest to yield 237.2 million tonnes of grain, a record output and a 27.1% growth in relation to the previous period.

According to the survey, soybean production is expected to grow by 19.4% and reach 113.9 million tonnes harvested, thus keeping with the expectations of the figures released in May. Maize production may reach 96 million tonnes, or 44.3% above the 2015/2016 harvest.
Agricultural products

The OECD/FAO report also provides projections for several major agricultural products for 2026. In the period under review, world grain production is expected to grow by about 1% per year by 2026, leading to total output increases of 11% for wheat, 14% for maize, 10% for secondary grains and 13% for rice.

With regard to livestock, the two largest meat exporting countries, Brazil and the United States, are expected to increase exports by approximately 44%, contributing almost 70% to the projected increase in world meat exports over the period analysed.

As for biofuels, the demand for ethanol is expected to increase by 6 billion litres in the period under study, which would require output to increase by 40% over the next ten years.